One of the inspiring presentations of the CLIMAAX Virtual Regions Forum came from Southwest Finland, where the CLIVAS project showcased how regions can assess climate risks while navigating a complex balance between vulnerabilities and emerging opportunities.

Presented by Otto Lappalainen from the Regional Council of Southwest Finland, the case highlighted how climate change is already reshaping risk patterns in northern regions, particularly in agriculture and precipitation extremes.

A changing climate: risks and opportunities

Southwest Finland is one of the country’s most important food-producing regions, making agricultural resilience a central concern. Climate change is expected to increase the instability of growing conditions, with more frequent droughts and heavy rainfall events affecting crop production.

At the same time, warming temperatures may also bring opportunities. A longer growing season could improve yields and enable the cultivation of new crops, such as maize, illustrating a dual dynamic where risks and benefits coexist.

The region is also home to the Archipelago Sea, one of the most polluted marine areas in the world, where climate change may exacerbate existing pressures. The combination of drought and subsequent heavy rainfall can increase nutrient runoff, further degrading already vulnerable ecosystems.

Assessing agricultural drought and heavy rainfall

The analysis focused on two main climate risks: agricultural drought and heavy rainfall. In the case of drought, the region faces structural vulnerabilities due to its limited irrigation capacity. Agriculture has traditionally relied on rainfall, and the availability of water resources for artificial irrigation is constrained. The assessment examined impacts on key crops such as wheat, barley and sugar beet, estimating average yield losses between 2% and 10%, with significant spatial and temporal variability.

Interestingly, model projections suggest that the most significant losses may occur in the near term, with impacts potentially decreasing towards the end of the century as growing conditions improve. For heavy rainfall, the analysis shows a clear increase in both frequency and intensity of extreme events. By integrating local warning thresholds and climate models adapted to northern conditions, the region estimates that rainfall intensity could increase by 20% to 50%, while the frequency of extreme events could double—or even increase up to tenfold for the most intense scenarios.

While flood preparedness in Finland is generally strong, the assessment identified stormwater systems in urban areas as a key vulnerability.

From analysis to usability

Beyond the results, the project has played an important role in strengthening regional capacity for climate adaptation. It enabled Southwest Finland to carry out its first comprehensive climate risk assessment and to integrate adaptation more firmly into its regional climate roadmap.

The findings have also supported dialogue with stakeholders, helping raise awareness and stimulate discussion on climate risks and adaptation measures. At the same time, the team emphasised that the real value of the analysis ultimately depends on whether stakeholders perceive it as useful and actionable.

Lessons learned: ownership, interpretation and communication

The experience highlights the benefits of conducting analysis in-house, supported by local stakeholders and external experts. This approach required technical capacity but fostered stronger ownership, deeper understanding and more effective knowledge exchange.

At the same time, the project underlined the importance of critical interpretation of results. Climate risk assessments cannot be taken at face value and must be continuously compared with existing data, expert knowledge and real-world observations.

Stakeholder engagement also proved essential, not only for improving data and methodologies but for ensuring that results are meaningful and usable. Communicating complex climate risks remains a key challenge, particularly when engaging non-technical audiences. Providing context and translating data into clear narratives is often more effective than relying solely on maps or quantitative outputs.

Looking ahead

As the project progresses, Southwest Finland is moving towards finalising its key risk assessment and identifying adaptation measures in collaboration with stakeholders. The region is also working on how best to communicate results and integrate them into its updated regional climate roadmap.

As highlighted during the CLIMAAX Virtual Regions Forum, this case demonstrates that effective climate risk assessment is not only about data and models, but about building capacity, ownership and shared understanding to support informed and forward-looking decisions.